By J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball — Feb 16, 2022
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— Four more states finalized their House maps over the past week or so, bringing the total number of states with completed congressional maps to 41.
— Maps in Connecticut, Minnesota, and Washington did not change much at all, while Kansas Republicans targeted the state’s lone Democrat in their redraw.
— Democrats hold a trio of single-digit Biden seats in these states — KS-3, MN-2, and WA-8 — that seem likely to emerge as top bellwether seats this cycle.
Rating new maps in CT, KS, MN, WA
Over the past week or so, congressional maps have been finalized in 4 additional states: Connecticut, Kansas, Minnesota, and Washington. This group of states features 3 swing districts — KS-3, MN-2, and WA-8 — that Democrats flipped in their 2018 wave but now must defend in their own challenging midterm environment, and all 3 Democratic incumbents may face a rematch with their 2020 GOP challengers. Redistricting hardly changed composition of 2 of those districts, but Republicans attempted to ease their path in the third.
Minnesota was another state where the state Supreme Court recently released what amounted to a minimal change map. While the Democrats control the governorship and the state House, the state Senate has a Republican majority — as no legislative compromise was reached, the courts stepped in to draw the state’s map, a common occurrence in Minnesota.
As with the outgoing map, both sides are strong favorites in 3 seats apiece. In the Twin Cities area, districts 4 and 5, which are St. Paul and Minneapolis, respectively, are ironclad Democratic districts. In MN-3, 2-term Democrat Dean Phillips is a heavy favorite — his district is essentially the remainder of Minneapolis’s Hennepin County (it avoids the city itself, as well as a handful of proximal communities). MN-3 was one of the 2 districts that then-Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) lost in 2014, but it is one of those suburban areas that has not been receptive to a Trumpier Republican Party. In fact, something that bodes well for Phillips is that, as a result of the court’s tweaks, the new district would have supported Franken by 2 points.
Rep. Tom Emmer (R, MN-6), who is the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, keeps a district that hugs the western parts of the Twin Cities, then runs northwest to grab St. Cloud. Though there have been some pro-Democratic trends in this district — Trump was the worst-performing Republican presidential nominee in Carver County, the state’s fastest-growing county, since the 1996 election — it seems likely to stay red.
Farther north, districts 7 and 8, which were amenable to congressional Democratic candidates until recently, are now Safe Republican. The 2020 results were truly a sign of the times in both districts: in the 7th, the mavericky Blue Dog Rep. Collin Peterson, who chaired the House Agriculture Committee, was denied a 16th term, while Rep. Pete Stauber became the first Republican since 1944 to secure reelection in MN-8. On a more parochial note, the court seems to have moved all the state’s American Indian reservations into MN-8 — this nudges MN-8, politically, leftward a few points, but not really enough to move it into play.
While MN-1, which runs along the entire Iowa border, may be competitive in some years, we are starting this seat out as Safe Republican given the type of pro-Republican environment that seems to be materializing this year. After now-Gov. Tim Walz (D) vacated it to run statewide, Democrats made a couple of serious attempts at the seat, but Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R, MN-1) has narrowly prevailed. While the cities of Mankato and Rochester vote blue, much of the rest of the district votes like Iowa — that is to say, it has drifted more Republican in recent cycles.
The marquee congressional race in Minnesota, though, seems likely to be in the 2nd District, which takes up much of the terrain immediately south of the Twin Cities. In 2020, Rep. Angie Craig (D, MN-2) won reelection 48%-46% over Marine Corps veteran Tyler Kistner (R), a candidate who was named to the NRCC’s “Young Guns” program. With Kistner running again, a rematch seems imminent.
Dakota County, the third most populous county in the state, makes up just over 60% of the seat and is Democratic-leaning, while the district includes all or parts of 4 other counties that are, collectively, redder. Map 1 gives MN-2’s breakdown in 2016 and 2020. Though Biden carried it 52%-45% in 2020, Trump claimed a 46% plurality there in 2016 (as he did in the outgoing district).
It may be worth noting that, as 2016 suggests, in recent races, Republicans seem to fare better in the district when the third party vote is higher. Democratic state Attorney General Keith Ellison narrowly lost the district in 2018, but close to 6% of the vote in his race went to a third party candidate. In 2020, Kistner’s 45.9% share was only slightly higher than Trump’s 45.4% in the district, but a third party candidate, Adam Charles Weeks, seemed to take mostly from Craig — though Weeks died before the election, his name remained on the ballot, and, in a bizarre twist, his death nearly prompted the state to delay the election.
In any case, Biden’s 52%-45% margin the district still may be too close for Democrats’ comfort. Even in a 2-way race, Kistner may also have a higher floor this cycle. We are starting MN-2 out as a Toss-up.