Most Minnesota districts are unlikely to flip this year

Craig fight to hold 2nd District looks like the one race to watch

By Nathan Gonzales, Roll Call – April 20, 2022

The short answer is that most of the partisan takeovers brought those districts into alignment with current political trends. Rural areas, including Minnesota’s 1st, 7th and 8th districts, are voting increasingly for Republicans while suburban areas, such as Minnesota’s 3rd, are voting more Democratic. And now that they’ve flipped, it’s hard to see how the party that lost them will get them back in the near future.

Republican Tyler Kistner is trying to follow a similar path to Congress as the incumbent he’s looking to defeat. DFL Rep. Angie Craig first ran in 2016 and lost to Rep. Jason Lewis. But two years later, she defeated the GOP incumbent. Kistner lost to Craig by 2 points in 2020 (a third-party candidate took 6 percent) and is hoping for success in their rematch. 

The suburban Twin Cities seat didn’t change much in redistricting; just 8 percent of the 2nd District is new to both candidates. And Biden would have won it by 7 points, putting it within reach for Republicans in the current political environment. 

Craig won’t be caught off-guard. She had $3.7 million in her campaign account on March 31 compared to $424,000 for Kistner. But this still looks like the type of race Republicans should be winning in a big GOP year. Initial rating: Tilt Democratic

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